Remember that moving speed is calculated with all the stops stripped out. Every time you stop your overall speed comes down which means In 2017 I ended on an average race speed of 16 km/h.
A better picture emerges when we examine my speed between Race Villages which takes the conditions (heat, wind, tiredness and boredom) into account.
Bloem to Van der Kloof - 219 km- 22.46 km/h
Van der Kloof to Britstown -176 km - 22.3 km/h
Britstown to Loxton - 190 km - 13.01 km/h (extremely hot and windy and I felt like death warmed up)
Loxton to Sutherland 15.4 km/h (tired,4 power naps)
Sutherland to Ceres 14.4 km/h (hot, tired, 1 power nap)
Ceres to Wellington 21.4 km/h (tired, 1 power nap)
I rode fine all the way to Britstown and then battled with heat, wind and sleep monsters from there to the finish. It got particularly scruffy between Britstown and Sutherland.
The 2017 data shows that I was moving for 54h36 and only spent 6h22 in Race Villages— slept at Loxton and Sutherland. That means I spent 6h35 at water points, power napping, getting water from reservoirs or sitting next to the road feeing sorry for myself.
That's my data. Gavin Robinson—aka Mrs Robinson—crunched his data for 2017 and sent it on. His numbers are:
Total race time 98h18
Race Village time 16h46
Time not moving while between Race Villages (water points, power naps etc.) 18h30
Even though his overall race speed was only 10.9 km/h his average moving speed was 17 km/h.
I've developed a basic formula to figure out a total finishing time based on a number of parameters.
Total time in minutes =((1080/AMS) x 60) + (ARVT x 5) + (WPT x 10) + ((RVS + 60) x NRVS) + ((RSPN + 10) x NRPN)
AMS = Average Moving Speed (in km/h)
ARVT = Average Race Village Time (in minutes, excluding sleep)
WPT = Water Point Turnaround (in minutes)
NWP = Number of Water Points (default is 10)
RVS = Race Village Sleep (in minutes, I add 30 mins either side of this for shower and dressing)
NRVS Number of Race Village Sleeps
RPN = Roadside Power Nap (in minutes, I add 5 mins either side of this)
NRPN = Number of Roadside Power Naps
Let's populate that formula and see what pops out:
Assuming the following:
18 km/h average moving speed
15 mins per water point
30 mins per Race Village
2 Race Village sleeps of 180 mins each (3 hours)
2 roadside power naps of 45 mins each
Total time in minutes =((1080/18) x 60) + (30x 5) + (15 x 10) + ((180+ 60) x 2) + ((45 + 10) x 2)
3600 + 150 + 150 + 480 + 110 = 4490 minutes = 74 hours 50 mins
That's a reasonable finishing time.
Let's see how it might look for someone with ambitions to finish in the top 10.
Using the following:
20 km/h average moving speed
10 mins per water point
20 mins per Race Village
1 Race Village sleep of 90 mins
3 roadside power naps of 30 mins each
Total time in minutes =((1080/20) x 60) + (20x 5) + (10 x 10) + ((180+ 60) x 2) + ((45 + 10) x 2)
3240 + 100 + 100 + 150 + 120 = 3710 minutes = 61 hours 50 mins
I think that might just make it into the top 10 - I'll use that data for my own effort.
Spreadsheet racing is fun but often the reality is very different. It's a given that the mercury will get into the high 40's and we will experience prevailing head winds. Add tempestuous weather and your spreadsheet data won't be worth the iPad it's written on. Even so, it's worthwhile crunching the numbers to figure out what you might be capable of IF you don't waste excessive time doing stuff that's not beneficial. Remember that beneficial = riding, eating and sleeping.
In the next post I'll touch on some endurance race basics that I've found helpful.
No comments:
Post a Comment